A recent study led by Yen Thi Pham from the National Korea Maritime & Ocean University has introduced a novel approach to decision-making in shipping networks, particularly focusing on route choices for container liner shipping in Vietnam. Published in the Journal of Eta Maritime Science, this research employs adaptive cumulative prospect theory to help shipping lines optimize their daily net profits amid uncertainties such as fluctuating freight rates, varying shipment demands, and changing fuel prices.
The study aims to provide shipping companies with a practical tool to navigate the complexities of maritime logistics. By applying this adaptive model, shipping lines can better assess which routes will yield the highest average daily profits. This is particularly pertinent in today’s volatile economic environment, where decision-makers must balance potential profits against risks.
One of the key findings of the research is that “the larger the adaptive parameter, the higher the daily profit, but the growth rate diminishes.” This insight suggests that while increasing the adaptive parameter can lead to greater profits, the benefits may taper off, indicating a need for careful calibration in the decision-making process.
The analysis specifically highlights the Hai Phong-Ho Chi Minh route as the safest option, showcasing the least variation in cumulative prospect value of daily profit. In contrast, the route from Hai Phong to Tan Cang Cai Mep and back to Hai Phong is recommended as the most effective strategy for maximizing cumulative daily profit. This information can be invaluable for shipping managers looking to enhance profitability while minimizing risk.
The implications of this research extend beyond just shipping lines; it offers opportunities for various sectors involved in logistics, trade, and maritime operations. By adopting this adaptive decision-making framework, companies can improve their operational strategies, leading to more resilient supply chains and better financial performance.
As the maritime industry continues to evolve, tools like the one developed by Pham can help companies navigate uncertainties and make informed decisions that align with their risk preferences. This study not only aligns theoretical models with real-world decision-making behaviors but also provides a straightforward method for optimizing shipping networks, marking a significant advancement in maritime logistics.
