The global shipping industry is in the eye of a storm, but it’s not the kind of tempest that comes with howling winds and towering waves. This is a different beast altogether – a conflict defined by economic coercion, shadow fleets, and contested logistics. Tariffs, sanctions, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping the maritime landscape, forcing operators to navigate a risk environment where geopolitics often trumps weather forecasts. Matt Meehling, director of product marketing at Babel Street, puts it bluntly: “Trade disruptions are no longer accidental byproducts of diplomacy – they are deliberate policy levers.”
Consider the tariff escalation between the US and China, the sanctions on Russian oil, or the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. These aren’t isolated threats; they’re symptoms of a new normal where governments treat shipping as a tactical asset. China’s military-civil fusion shipbuilding policies and LOGINK, its state-run maritime surveillance network, are prime examples. The very infrastructure of global trade is getting entangled in national agendas, and it’s making the seas a lot more treacherous.
Shadow fleets, illicit networks, and military-grade commercial vessels are no longer just theoretical risks. They’re real, and they’re challenging regulatory compliance, insurance viability, and operational safety. Sanctioned states operate shadow fleets using tactics like false flagging, frequent ownership changes, and manipulations of the Automatic Identification System (AIS). By turning off transponders, spoofing locations, or falsifying data, these vessels can vanish from traditional tracking systems, making them harder for authorities to trace and easier for adversaries to exploit.
Then there’s the issue of dual-use capabilities. China’s commercial fleets are increasingly mirroring military standards, raising concerns about strategic readiness under the guise of trade. And as polar ice melts, Arctic routes dominated by Russian ships are opening up, where traditional enforcement is limited. Meanwhile, nations like China are floating nuclear-powered cargo vessels, promising cleaner energy but signalling strategic naval capability.
So, how do maritime operators navigate this mess? They need a new risk framework, one that considers not just where a ship is going, but who built it, what surveillance data it shares, and how foreign governments may view its role in future conflicts. This is where Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) comes in. OSINT draws from publicly available data – satellite imagery, port registries, social media – to provide real-time context on geopolitical risks. It can track vessel flagging and ownership changes, monitor transhipment hubs, and surface anomalies in crew rosters and employment histories – indicators often tied to sanctions evasion or illicit activity.
AIS anomaly detection can reveal when ships “go dark.” Satellite imagery can expose vessels operating without transponders. Tracking shifts in vessels’ flagging or changes in crew manifests can signal risk before it hits operations. For insurers and regulators, OSINT supports risk modelling by revealing trends like flag-of-convenience usage, secondary insurance underwriting in high-risk zones, and affiliations with known bad actors.
But here’s the kicker: OSINT doesn’t just enhance compliance – it enables foresight. It empowers industry players to anticipate when and where governments will act. Tariff announcements, sanction designations, and strategic military exercises aren’t just isolated datapoints – they’re early indicators of disruption. And in an era where the rules can change as fast as a sanctions update or a new enforcement directive, that foresight is invaluable.
The age of separating business risk from political risk is over. Global shipping is now a domain of contested logistics, and companies that integrate OSINT into their operational planning gain the ability to model and mitigate threats proactively. Those that don’t may find themselves caught in the crossfire – financially, operationally, and reputationally. It’s a tough sea to navigate, but with the right tools, maritime operators can steer through the storm.