The maritime industry’s green fuel race is taking a sharp turn east. Biomethanol prices in Asia are now undercutting Europe’s by a significant margin, and the gap is widening. This isn’t just a pricing blip—it’s a tectonic shift in how low-carbon marine fuel compliance will play out globally.
FuelEU Maritime’s rules allow certified low-carbon fuels bunkered outside the EU to count toward compliance. But here’s the twist: Europe’s anti-dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel have made imports pricier, creating a compliance arbitrage opportunity. Shipowners can now “mass-balance” biomethanol bought in Asia into their EU voyages, using certificates to prove equivalent supply without physically bunkering in Europe. The result? Chinese and Singaporean prices, not Rotterdam’s, are setting the global benchmark.
The pace of this shift is accelerating. In May, Shanghai Port conducted its second commercial biomethanol bunkering—3,110 tonnes for HMM’s methanol-capable vessel HMM Forest. By July, Towngas delivered 5,000 tonnes of ISCC-EU certified biomethanol from Tianjin to Singapore for bunkering trials, proving large-scale certified supply chains are viable. Shanghai Electric also fired up a new ISCC-EU certified plant in Jilin province last month, explicitly targeting marine bunkering.
More supply is flooding in. Goldwind Green Energy is set to commission a 250,000-tonne hybrid bio/e-methanol project in Inner Mongolia this month, with long-term offtake agreements already signed with Maersk (500,000 tonnes/year) and Hapag-Lloyd (250,000 tonnes/year). CIMC Enric will start trial runs at its 50,000-tonne biomethanol plant in Guangdong this autumn, ramping up to 250,000 tonnes/year by 2027.
Prices reflect this eastward anchor. In August, Argus assessed east China dob biomethanol at $1,000 per tonne, compared with $1,164.60 per tonne at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub. With FuelEU accepting certified bunkering outside Europe, shipowners can mass-balance cheaper Chinese or Singaporean biomethanol into EU voyages, bypassing Europe’s higher biodiesel and e-methanol premiums.
European policy is amplifying the shift. Anti-dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel, ranging from 10-35%, raise EU biofuel costs. Meanwhile, EU regulators have confirmed that certified fuels bunkered abroad can count toward FuelEU compliance, provided documentation is intact. That combination encourages owners to source in Asia, where supply is growing and prices are lower.
But risks remain. The EU is already tightening scrutiny of certification systems after fraud allegations in Chinese biofuels, and future reforms could restrict book-and-claim mass balancing. Industry groups also warn that the Union Database for Biofuels could impose costly fees, tight deadlines, and double-counting risks, potentially affecting biomethanol development.
Yet the trajectory is unmistakable. Argus tracks a pipeline of nearly 42.5 million tonnes of low-carbon methanol capacity by 2030, much of it in China. China alone has announced 72 biomethanol and e-methanol projects (15 million tonnes/year), with 24 projects (3.2 million tonnes/year) under construction or at FID stage. Singapore is also moving fast. Its Maritime and Port Authority announced a new methanol bunkering standard in March and opened methanol bunkering license applications. The five-year license, valid from 1 January 2026 to 31 December 2030, will be awarded in the fourth quarter to firms that meet safety and operational standards.
Demand is rising in tandem. As of August 2025, more than 60 methanol-capable vessels are in operation, with another 300 on order. Until Europe scales its own production or tightens FuelEU rules, biomethanol prices, and compliance costs, will increasingly be set in Asia, not in the EU.
This isn’t just about cheaper fuel—it’s about who controls the compliance narrative. Asia’s aggressive push into biomethanol production and certification is reshaping the global low-carbon fuel landscape. For shipowners, the calculus is simple: follow the price, follow the compliance, and follow the fuel. The question is, will Europe adapt or get left behind?