China’s shipbuilding industry has undergone a seismic shift since 2015, driven by the twin engines of Made in China 2025 and military-civil fusion. These policies aren’t just economic blueprints—they’re reshaping the naval balance in the Indo-Pacific, and the maritime sector is feeling the ripple effects.
Made in China 2025 set ambitious targets: five globally competitive shipbuilders, 40% of the maritime equipment market, and 80% localization for advanced vessels. But the real game-changer was military-civil fusion, which turned commercial shipyards into dual-use powerhouses. Imagine a shipyard cranking out LNG carriers by day and aircraft carriers by night. That’s the new reality. The lines between commercial and military shipbuilding are blurring, with expertise, supply chains, and even revenue flowing seamlessly between the two.
Ten years ago, China’s shipbuilding was vast but unsophisticated. Orders were concentrated in the lower end of the value chain—bulk carriers, containerships, but few complex vessels like LNG carriers or cruise liners. Productivity lagged behind South Korea and Japan, and reliance on foreign technology was rampant. But today, China’s dominance is undeniable. In 2024, Chinese shipyards secured 113.05 million deadweight tonnage in new orders—a 58.8% year-on-year surge. China now commands 53.3% of global shipbuilding, with state-owned giants like China State Shipbuilding Corporation churning out more vessels in a year than the U.S. did since World War II.
The shift isn’t just about volume. It’s about capability. China has closed the gap in LNG carriers, narrowed the lead in liquefied petroleum gas carriers, and is rapidly catching up in offshore support vessels. The production of roll-on/roll-off (RORO) vessels is set to explode, with orders for 200 ships placed as of October 2023. These aren’t just numbers—they’re a testament to technological advancements and supply chain mastery.
But here’s the kicker: this isn’t just about commercial shipbuilding. Military-civil fusion means every innovation in commercial shipbuilding—whether it’s advanced propulsion, automation, or green technologies—could be repurposed for naval use. The same shipyards building LNG carriers today could be constructing next-generation warships tomorrow. This dual-use capability is a strategic game-changer, allowing China to leverage its commercial might to bolster its military power.
For policymakers, the implications are clear. The naval balance in the Indo-Pacific is shifting, and China’s shipbuilding industry is at the heart of this transformation. The question isn’t just about market share—it’s about technological edge, innovation, and the blurring lines between commercial and military shipbuilding. As China continues to push the boundaries of what’s possible, the rest of the world will need to adapt—or risk falling behind.