NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and Sofar Ocean are teaming up to revolutionize marine weather forecasting. Their three-year partnership, which kicked off in late 2024, is all about building a coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model that promises to boost the accuracy of global marine weather forecasts and regional extreme weather scenarios.
This isn’t just about crunching numbers—it’s about making waves in maritime safety. Scientists from both NOAA and Sofar are already using early versions of this coupled model to improve ocean weather forecasts, which is a game-changer for coastal communities, maritime shipping, and the broader blue economy.
Lucas Harris, leader of GFDL’s Weather and Climate Dynamics Division, puts it succinctly: “Our collaboration with Sofar explores the benefits of shared technologies and ideas in modeling the coupled Earth system. By combining GFDL model components with observations from Sofar’s global Spotter network, we can build a model to produce highly accurate global marine forecasts.”
Sofar Ocean’s Spotter Platform is a standout in this collaboration. It’s a modular, rapidly deployable marine sensing system that delivers real-time surface and subsurface ocean data. GFDL and Sofar are using millions of real-time and historical observations from Sofar’s global network of Spotters to calibrate their models and initialize near real-time forecasts.
The partnership is a two-way street. GFDL contributes components from its System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-local Domains (SHiELD) and Modular Ocean Model (MOM6), while Sofar brings its global network of free-drifting ocean sensors, called Spotter buoys. These buoys are crucial for calibrating models at the air-sea interface and initializing near real-time operational forecasts. Sofar also leverages AI to fine-tune model parameters, adding another layer of sophistication to the project.
The results are already impressive. The experimental coupled model has improved Sofar’s global marine weather forecast accuracy, particularly in challenging regions like the South Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean tropics. Wind speed forecasts, for instance, are now outperforming other global forecast models in these areas.
One of the key advantages of this collaboration is filling observational gaps. Spotter buoys deliver highly accurate wave and weather data even in heavy convection, rain, and clouds typical of storms—conditions that satellites often struggle with. This data is invaluable for calibrating extreme weather models and initializing near real-time operational storm forecasts. GFDL, Sofar, and NOAA’s National Hurricane Center are all leveraging these Spotter observations to enhance their predictive capabilities.
This partnership exemplifies how public-private collaborations can drive innovation in marine science. By combining cutting-edge modeling techniques with real-world data, GFDL and Sofar are setting a new standard for marine weather forecasting. As the project progresses, it could redefine how we predict and prepare for extreme weather events, ultimately making our oceans safer for everyone.