The United States is riding a wave of crude oil production growth, but the question on everyone’s mind is whether this boom can last. According to Poten & Partners’ weekly opinion and data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil production hit a staggering 13.8 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in September 2025. This remarkable recovery from the lows of 2008, when production dipped below 5 Mb/d, is largely thanks to the shale oil revolution and the lifting of the crude oil export ban at the end of 2015.
The shale oil boom has been the driving force behind this production surge. In October 2025, shale output reached 9.04 Mb/d, accounting for 65% of total U.S. production. The lifting of the export ban allowed U.S. crude to compete on the global stage, narrowing the Brent-WTI spread and boosting domestic production. However, the rapid growth in shale production and exports has shown signs of slowing, raising the question: Are we at peak U.S. production and exports?
To answer this, we need to look beyond shale. Conventional onshore and offshore production in the U.S. Gulf also play crucial roles. Shale production has faced its share of challenges, from low oil prices to demand fluctuations, but the industry has proven resilient. Technological advancements, such as longer lateral wells, enhanced hydraulic fracturing, and digital tools, have enabled higher output with fewer active rigs. Industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions has shifted focus to shareholder returns, tempering growth in lower price environments.
Yet, as one shale CEO reminded shareholders, “Never underestimate the American engineer.” Technological improvements continue to drive efficiency, and increasing recovery rates could be the next big leap. Chevron’s CEO highlighted that every 1%-point increase in recovery rate is worth billions, stating, “We know where the oil is. If we left 90% of the oil behind, it would be the first time in history that we didn’t figure out how to do it.”
Beyond shale, the deepwater U.S. Gulf is seeing a resurgence. Production is nearing 2.0 Mb/d, with forecasts pushing it to 2.2 Mb/d in 2026. Alaska is another hotspot, with the EIA forecasting a 13% increase in production by 2026, the largest annual jump since the 1980s. Long-term projections anticipate production peaking at over 650,000 b/d by 2034.
While production grows, U.S. oil demand is expected to plateau, freeing up more oil for export. The potential startup of deepwater oil export terminals in the U.S. Gulf could enhance export capacity and efficiency. This growth in U.S. crude oil exports is poised to support the tanker market for years to come.
The future of U.S. oil production is multifaceted. Shale’s resilience and innovation, combined with growth in the Gulf and Alaska, suggest that peak production is not yet in sight. The industry’s ability to adapt and innovate will be key to sustaining this growth.