In a groundbreaking study published in the Chinese journal *Yantu gongcheng xuebao* (translated to *Rock and Soil Mechanics*), a team of researchers led by CUI Chunyi from Dalian Maritime University has developed a novel approach to assess the seismic fragility of subway station structures. The research addresses a critical gap in current methodologies by accounting for the statistical uncertainty inherent in seismic demand samples, which are often limited in number and scope.
The team, which includes experts from Dalian Maritime University, Beijing University of Technology, and Shandong University of Science and Technology, employed the Bootstrap method to convert a limited set of seismic demand samples into a larger, more representative dataset. This approach allows for a more robust analysis of seismic fragility, which is crucial for understanding the resilience of subway station structures during earthquakes.
One of the key innovations in this study is the use of the maximum entropy principle combined with copula theory to establish a joint probability distribution model of statistical uncertainty variables. This model helps quantify the variability in seismic fragility caused by the statistical uncertainty of seismic demands. As lead author CUI Chunyi explains, “The seismic fragility of subway station structures derived from limited seismic demand samples has significant variability. Our method provides a more accurate and reliable assessment of this fragility.”
The research also highlights the practical implications of these findings. By obtaining mean fragility curves and envelope fragility curves with a certain confidence level, engineers and urban planners can make more informed decisions about the seismic performance and risk assessment of subway station structures. This is particularly relevant for maritime professionals involved in the design and construction of coastal and port infrastructure, where seismic risks can be substantial.
The study’s findings have significant commercial impacts and opportunities for the maritime sector. For instance, the enhanced understanding of seismic fragility can lead to more robust design standards and improved risk management strategies for maritime infrastructure. This, in turn, can reduce the likelihood of costly damages and disruptions caused by seismic events.
Moreover, the methodologies developed in this research can be applied to other types of infrastructure, including ports, harbors, and offshore structures. As XU Minze, a co-author from Dalian Maritime University, notes, “Our approach can be adapted to various types of structures, making it a valuable tool for engineers and planners in the maritime sector.”
The research published in *Yantu gongcheng xuebao* represents a significant advancement in the field of seismic engineering. By addressing the statistical uncertainty in seismic demand samples, the study provides a more comprehensive and reliable framework for assessing the seismic fragility of subway station structures. This not only enhances the safety and resilience of urban infrastructure but also offers valuable insights and opportunities for the maritime sector.